NEW RP – 118R-21: Cost Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Estimate Ranging for Inherent Risks with Monte Carlo Simulation
This recommended practice (RP) defines general practices and considerations for inherent cost risk analysis and estimating contingency using a cost estimate ranging analysis with the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The method is only recommended for quantifying inherent cost uncertainty when the project scope is well-defined (i.e., Class 3 or better) and when the project has no new technology and minimal complexity. In all cases, the method is not to be used alone when there are significant project-specific risks (e.g., contingent risks or events). The method is applicable to two situations…